the crowd

the crowd
the crowd, people;
the crowd, people connected; 
the crowd, humanity’s beating heart;
the crowd, core of the internet of everything;
the crowd, evolutionary specie;
the crowd, real power.

the crowd year 02015:
people, around seven billion;
people connected, less than three billion intermittently;
humanity’s beating heart, young and strengthening;
core of internet of everything, ~ sixteen billion connections;
evolutionary specie, not yet self-aware;
real power, emerging.

the crowd year 02025:
people, around eight billion;
people connected, everyone, all eight billion continuously;
humanity’s beating heart, maturing and strong;
core of internet of everything, ~ one trillion connections;
evolutionary specie, self-aware;
real power, the crowd.

‘ddp3.07.06.02015

refuge

refuge

paradise: young man, early 80’s,
Copacabana beach by day, sin city by night,
and again, and again, and again…

refuge: young man, early 80’s,
conversation and prose, absence of debauchery,
pints and English, anecdote and debate,
Ipanema, Lord Jim’s Pub, pints and…

‘Excuse me, do you have the time’,
a voice sweet and sublime,
without timepiece, eyes to table drift,
six arms, three watches, eyes to voice lift…

two decades, without blood above neck,
an awakening, where is the one, the one once thought met,
a girl from Ipanema, modest, happy and free,
to princess of london, money, money and me…

refuge: seasoned man, mid 20’teens,
future thought and prose,
humanity thought and stories,
future of humanity thought and poetic license.

refuge: prose, stories and poetic license.

‘ddp2.03.06.02015

 

A question on safeguarding humanity

A question on safeguarding humanity

A number of non-profit organizations in some way seek to safeguard humanity. Each organization will have its own set of perceived risks, whether or not supported by science, as to what humanity needs safeguarding from.

Two organizations very much on the science side of any debate on humanity’s future would be The Long Now Foundation and The Lifeboat Foundation. The Long Now Foundation takes a 10,000 year view, whereas the Lifeboat Foundation appears to focus on this century. Both organizations are populated by some of the brightest scientific and intellectual minds on the planet.

Yesterday, 01.06.02015, an advisory board member of the Lifeboat Foundation, posted a challenge to 800 or more colleagues in a members’ private forum. The challenge: to come up with new ideas for a “Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks”, the plan laid out in an easy to follow chart format.

Quoting author Alexei Turchin, ‘…anyone who can suggest a new way of X-risk prevention that is not already mentioned in this roadmap…’.

A case was made to, and accepted by, the author to allow this roadmap to travel outside of the halls of intellectuals and think tanks into the worlds of engineers, oil & gas people professionals, international viewpoints, grassroots artists, white and blue collar alike, for new ideas.

So there lies opportunity and question:

  • opportunity: to send one’s thoughts on safeguarding humanity to The Lifeboat Foundation;
  • question: what new ideas for safeguarding humanity are out there?

The Turchin Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks is pasted below and is freely downloadable and shareable. Comments and ideas arising will be directed to Alexei Turchin.

[Interesting that there does not seem to be much emphasis on near term risk, particularly the next decade as many exponential technologies come out of deceptive phase and into a disruptive phase, very disruptive. The risks to humanity’s future within a decade as the world changes from less than 3 billion occasionally connected souls to 8 billion hyper-connected souls as an example.]

What do you think?

IMG_3623
Resources:

https://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/18795012/or/1229544550/name/globriskeng.jpg?download=1

http://lifeboat.com/blog/author/alexeiturchin

http://longnow.org/

https://lifeboat.com/ex/about

Exponential Growth doesn’t stay Exponential Forever. Ride it While it Lasts.

Box Thoughts

I was recently forwarded a presentation on the power of exponential growth and business disruption.  Every other slide told the story of how exponential growth was the new normal and how it needed to be harnessed.  The problem is that eventually exponential growth collapses or has no additional value or becomes focused on a niche instead of the mainstream.  Exponential isn’t forever.

But exponential can last a century as well – it’s just that you may not realize the trend for the first 50 years of the cycle.  Harness it while you can but don’t expect to ride it forever.  The same business rules as always still apply.

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iCubeSat 2015 presentations online

iCubeSat

iCubeSat2015MainTheatreiCubeSat2015ExhibitioniCubeSat2015Garden
Most slides and other supporting materials from iCubeSat 2015 are now online here – the rest will be posted as soon as we receive the final clearances from presenters or their institutions. Thank you to everyone who participated in another exciting and stimulating workshop and for the amazing response to the call for deep space payloads for the launch next year – it’s great to see the community working together in this way. We hope you’ll join us again next year in Oxford in the United Kingdom on Tuesday 24th and Wednesday 25th May 2016 on or near the University of Oxford campus – see you then!

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A short reply to Bryan Parson’s crowd power question

A short reply to Bryan Parson’s question on crowd power.

Brian, Thank you for the feedback and question:

“The idea of technology awakening the impoverished masses, may be a catalyst for hyper-accelerated development. Is that a good or bad thing, I wonder?”

A robust argument could be made either way, depending upon exactly which technologies do get broadly democratized to the masses and when. Great debate rages over this very issue.

What about taking a look at things from a different viewpoint:

• Does it matter if it is good or bad,

Who cares. ‘Good’, ‘Bad’, by whose definition anyway? Is society not changing what is good and bad at an accelerating rate? The disruptive events in Alberta and Ireland recently are redefining what was once considered as bad into good.

• Vision and Message. Positive v Negative,

Replacing a vision of seemingly perpetual poverty with a real live (see it, touch it, feel it) vision of hope: that is a different message.

• Enough already, humanity can get on top of it for once, before it is too late, with exponential thinking,

Society spends much of its resources responding to the effects of poverty. Fewer resources are spent in eliminating poverty. Again debate rages.

We now live in an exponential world where linear thinking breeds failure. Linear thinking might argue that a cheap cell phone, internet, a few seeds and a $700 micro-loan to plant a garden and by a milk cow is all that can or should be done. Steady as she goes linear thinking.

Exponential thinking would identify that the intermittently connected crowd will grow from under 3 billion today to circa 8 billion almost continuously hyper-connected people by 2025. So will grow access to knowledge and information, exponentially.

It is difficult to see a ‘seeds and micro-loan’ policy surviving the approval of the crowd for much longer unless scaled 10x soonish. A 1 billion happy / 7 billion unhappy ratio does not bode well for the future.

It is also difficult to envisage anything other than really bold moves capturing the crowd’s attention to make this all happen. Bold moves hat can evolve into a generational vision as hinted in a post entitled ‘a futurist story about Silicon Valley and Rio de Janeiro’. https://disrupt2thrive.com/2015/05/30/a-futuristic-story-about-silicon-valley-and-rio-de-janeiro/

Moves that envisage a ratio of >7 billion happy / <1 billion unhappy for humanity by 2025.

Anyway, to reply to the question: Neither good, nor bad, just necessary.                                 ddrp1.31.05.02015

A personal genome (dna),story

A personal genome (dna) story

A few years back I had my genome done by http://www.23andme.com. I am curious about most things and look for supporting empirical evidence just because, so it was a no brainer for me. 

The quantity and quality of the data that came back was both revealing and impressive to be sure. Ancestry, which is of course fun, as well as traits, health risks and drug responses feature as categories for the data. 

What really caught my attention initially was inherited conditions. Of the 50+ bad ones currently tracked by 23andme, no markers in my dna, however I am a carrier for hemochromatosis, an blood iron condition. 

Boom, daughters getting their dna done, mom and a few others as well. Relief, both daughters are condition free but carriers as well. 

I have been having fun with my dna for a good while, an example, I have: 

  • 3.0% Neanderthal in my dna; 
  • 12.6% chance of getting Alzheimer’s; 
  • a marker giving higher than average odds of living to a hundred or more; 

So, half wild and crazy, I am going to be around here for a while!

Recently, our (the girl from Ipanema and myself) oldest daughter developed multiple breast lumps and other conditions simultaneously. 

Dads do what dads do. While on the plane scouring dear daughter’s dna, her mother’s dna and my mother’s dna on the iPad for information for the the doctors, a feeling of confidence came over me. The doctors concurred, the tests became more specific and dear daughter has an encouraging prognosis. 

Words do not do justice to watching the radiant faces of one’s daughter and partner emerging from breast cancer test results. Gratitude to 23andme, doctors, daughter and partner! 

A little caveat here. The type of dna testing done at 23andme is entry level at an entry level price of around $200. Further more detailed and complete genetic testing, if required, would be closer to $1000 per. As with anything digital such as dna, the price performance decreases exponentiallyMas per Moore’s Law. It will get cheaper soon. By 2025: $10 all in. 

A parting thought: 

Maternal Line = U4a1, Paternal Line = R1b1b2a1a2f* 

Which means: 

…..out of africa…..a long sojourn in western europe…..a couple of decades in north america…..almost 4 decades exploring the world………..space next….

Yes, the tinker (gypsy) gene is in my dna. 

So anyway, a personal dna story seasoned old roughneck                                                            ‘ddps1.31.05.02015