paradise: young man, early 80’s,
Copacabana beach by day, sin city by night,
and again, and again, and again…

refuge: young man, early 80’s,
conversation and prose, absence of debauchery,
pints and English, anecdote and debate,
Ipanema, Lord Jim’s Pub, pints and…

‘Excuse me, do you have the time’,
a voice sweet and sublime,
without timepiece, eyes to table drift,
six arms, three watches, eyes to voice lift…

two decades, without blood above neck,
an awakening, where is the one, the one once thought met,
a girl from Ipanema, modest, happy and free,
to princess of london, money, money and me…

refuge: seasoned man, mid 20’teens,
future thought and prose,
humanity thought and stories,
future of humanity thought and poetic license.

refuge: prose, stories and poetic license.



A question on safeguarding humanity

A question on safeguarding humanity

A number of non-profit organizations in some way seek to safeguard humanity. Each organization will have its own set of perceived risks, whether or not supported by science, as to what humanity needs safeguarding from.

Two organizations very much on the science side of any debate on humanity’s future would be The Long Now Foundation and The Lifeboat Foundation. The Long Now Foundation takes a 10,000 year view, whereas the Lifeboat Foundation appears to focus on this century. Both organizations are populated by some of the brightest scientific and intellectual minds on the planet.

Yesterday, 01.06.02015, an advisory board member of the Lifeboat Foundation, posted a challenge to 800 or more colleagues in a members’ private forum. The challenge: to come up with new ideas for a “Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks”, the plan laid out in an easy to follow chart format.

Quoting author Alexei Turchin, ‘…anyone who can suggest a new way of X-risk prevention that is not already mentioned in this roadmap…’.

A case was made to, and accepted by, the author to allow this roadmap to travel outside of the halls of intellectuals and think tanks into the worlds of engineers, oil & gas people professionals, international viewpoints, grassroots artists, white and blue collar alike, for new ideas.

So there lies opportunity and question:

  • opportunity: to send one’s thoughts on safeguarding humanity to The Lifeboat Foundation;
  • question: what new ideas for safeguarding humanity are out there?

The Turchin Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks is pasted below and is freely downloadable and shareable. Comments and ideas arising will be directed to Alexei Turchin.

[Interesting that there does not seem to be much emphasis on near term risk, particularly the next decade as many exponential technologies come out of deceptive phase and into a disruptive phase, very disruptive. The risks to humanity’s future within a decade as the world changes from less than 3 billion occasionally connected souls to 8 billion hyper-connected souls as an example.]

What do you think?


Crowd Power (A bit of roughneck philosophy)

Crowd Power (A little roughneck philosophy)

The crowd is made up of us, almost 3 billion humans interactively connected, to varying degrees by the internet and smartphone cell coverage. Many of us, though by no means all, are using the power of the connected crowd mostly for self interest and triviality. Together with nearly 13 billion sensors and tech tools from home alarms to rhino protecting drones we form the Internet of everything (IoE).

Over the course of the next five years to ~2020, the crowd will double to about six billion people connected by and to the IoE, ~50 billion people, sensors, tech tools and toys.

As smartphones, the IoE and their successors become ubiquitous, by 2025, ~8 billion people will be hyper-connected at speeds of at least 1Mbps. Around 5 billion new crowd members, almost 200% growth in a decade. Powerful, very powerful!

These new crowd members, ~80-90% impoverished, will likely join the crowd motivated differently than the first couple of billion. Many will experience growth in access to knowledge and information at an exponential pace while living without basic human necessities and dignity.

Unprecedented awareness of the very latest in interests, innovation and exponential technology will come with equal awareness of the distant abundance of the few.

If this awareness is not supported with benevolent leadership, substance and practical assistance, as this emerging evolutionary entity matures, becomes self aware and powerful, its personality is likely to emulate that of its mentorship or worse. Much worse.

Vision2025 is about: ‘an 8 billion strong hyper-connected, hyper-cooperative, hyper-productive crowd of humane personality working to build and do amazing things and experiences with increasingly amazing technologies and growing abundance’.


If the crowd is not on board and in on it well before 2025, the future may not be so bright. The harder road to the future.

Humanity needs to scale the democratization and demonetization of the fruits of its labors and disruptive exponential technologies. The easier road to the future.


A short story about a big contrast

A short story about a big contrast

Being invited as a guest to listen in on one of the planet’s greatest think tanks discuss humanity’s future is indeed a rare occasion and privilege.

800+ intelligentsia debating humanity’s future….with heart palpitating and backside puckering….what was to be discovered from listening in? Some really interesting thoughts to be sure, however the two topical postings of the day, by the same author no less, were quite a stunning contrast.

One post spoke of spinning theory on humanity’s future way way out there, like more than 100 years out there. The other post lamented the burden of the intellectual in being unable capture the attention of and motivate the masses to the wonders of the future, the future seemingly beginning ~2045.

Advice was sought from Socrates before resignation set in, grinding away at sharpening the science and rhetoric by the intellectual, same ol’ same ol’, seemingly the only way forward. Real inspiring stuff.

One old roughneck who was supposed to be just listening just couldn’t resist, without much thinking about who all might be listening in, piped up with 2 cents worth mostly as follows: (names, titles and places changed to protect the innocent and guilty alike).

“Dear A Person,

……. I am thoroughly enjoying reading your posts and those of your learned colleagues.

I was struck by the contrast between this XXXXX post and your YYYYY post. At the risk of breaching protocol, I must ask your indulgence for an observation or two from a layman’s perspective followed with a question or two.

You speak of difficulty in capturing the crowd’s attention. That to me would not necessarily suggest that the science and rhetoric were dull. It would rather suggest that the message is dull. If the crowd cannot feel the message, their attention span will be short. A sharp message captures the crowd’s attention, the science underpins it and the rhetoric fuels it.

I think that esteemed astrophysicist and story teller Neil Degrasse Tyson describes articulately what it takes to capture the crowd’s attention and make big things happen.  In his poorly attended appeal to a congressional committee on NASA’s behalf, he demonstrated the power of a generational vision with the man on the moon mission that spurred decades of extraordinary growth. Mr. Tyson contends that when manned space exploration stopped, the crowd could no longer feel the message and the vision died. Mr. Tyson proposes that a new manned exploration space mission and 1% of GDP will do it all again.

In the 60’s, the crowd was sporadically connected in a one way conversation. Today, the crowd is almost 3 billion strong, by 2025 everyone will be interconnected with multi-level conversational tools. The moon has been done, Mars is too far away to feel for most, I would suggest that it is going to take something completely different and back here on earth to inspire and craft a generational vision capable of capturing the crowd’s attention and motivating the masses such as you desire in this XXXXX post.

Contemplating and theory spinning on the YYYYY would seem to require having gone way up and way out there, way past (for simplicity) 2045 and way above 30,000 feet to look for plausible evidence one way or the other. At some point way out there, things must seem pretty stable and good for humanity, good enough to theorize further about YYYYY and such.

My questions would then be something like this:

When traveling back from such far reaching success scenarios, one could expect to see a rough best path and a few required milestones between then and present day. I would guess that you and others read and studied enough to be able to look down and back at things from those heights and distances would have been interested in having a look see at  ~2025 on the way past.

Presuming that your future success case would mean seeing a success case in 2025 as well, and presuming that the connected crowd, ~8 billion by then, would have had to unite in a major way to support a success case in 2025:

What are the 3 most visible or even shockingly visible societal changes seen between your 2025 view and present day?

Is there a sharp message and generational vision of sufficiently disruptive (make it all happen) amplitude to to be found by looking at studied views of 2025 with the scope pointed at ‘what has to happen to make this view a reality?’ 

Can those insights, curated for varying segments of society, and shared with the crowd over a broad bandwidth breed the tipping point you search for in YYYYY …..”

So, just a short story from a seasoned old roughneck…..will A. Person write a sequel?